Youth bulge and crime in Kaduna State.

 

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1     Background of Study

“Youth bulge” is a demographic expressions frequently used to describe a population in which the share of young people is radically large in contrast to other, elder age groups. According to the UN-associated Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN), UN agencies define the youth bulge as large cohorts (in excess of 20%) between the ages of 15 and 24 in relation to the total mature population. Other definitions expand the range to include the 15 to 29 age group (Imai King & Olivia, 2008).

 

‘Youth bulge refers to a cohort of youth between the ages of 15 and 24 that is unusually large relative to the adult population in a society’ (Hart 2004:591). The term was coined by German social scientist Gunnar Heinsohn in the mid-1990s where he thinks that a youth bulge occurs when 30 to 40 percent of the males of a nation belong to the ‘fighting age’ cohorts from 15 to 29 years of age. Demographers argue that developing countries undergoing “demographic transition” or those moving from high to low fertility and mortality rates -are especially vulnerable to civil conflict. A large proportion of young adults and a rapid rate of growth in the working-age population tend to exacerbate unemployment, prolong dependency on parents, diminish self-esteem, and fuel frustrations (Cincotta quoted in Beehner 2007: para. 3). So-called “youth bulges” have been for many years a key concern in development given the implications for labour markets, government budgets, cultural norms and overall economic growth in countries where economic stagnation and unemployment are major problems (Jimenez, Emmanuel & Mamta 2006:43).

 

In the early 1990s, awareness of the security dimensions of youth bulges took on a new prominence as policy makers worried about the potential turmoil to be caused by large numbers of unemployed young people particularly young men growing listless and alienated from their society. More recently, youth bulges have become a popular explanation for current political instability in the Nigeria and for recruitment to international terrorist networks. A good number of demographers suggest that youth often play a prominent role in political violence, and the ‘existence of a “youth bulge” has historically been associated with times of political crisis’ (Goldstone 1991 quoted in Urdal 2011:1).

 

‘A recent demographic and political trend shows that countries with a large proportion of young adults in the working-age population are much less likely to attain a stable liberal democracy than countries with a more mature age structure’ (Cincotta 2009:online).

Economists, demographers, and other scholars had postulated that Kaduna state is expected to experience a Youth Bulge- an increase in the population of the youths in relation to other age groups (Bloom and Humair, 2010; Reed and Mbezu, 2011). As expected, this rising ratio of youth population in comparison with other age groups would stimulate economic growth and development otherwise known as demographic dividend.

 

Nigeria, with particular reference to Kaduna State obviously has not yield a substantial dividend out of its Youth Bulge in the face of the dwindling economy. Consequently the economy is rampant with, high rate of unemployment, political violence, poverty, crime, and militancy. And as such, instead of reaping the demographic dividend out of the Youth Bulge, we are faced with the reality of crime. This is because the youths are already vulnerable to drug abuse, vandalism, militancy, insurgency and other form of conflict (Zainab, 2012).

Lin (2012), a former World Bank economist also warns that failure to nurture youthful population poses risks of insecurity and political instability; in a statement Lin explained, “If a large cohort of young people cannot find employment and earn satisfactory income, the Youth Bulge will become a challenge, because a large mass of frustrated youth is likely to become a potential source of social and political instability. Infact, Lin described Youth Bulge as a double edged sword with the potential of producing a demographic dividend or a threat.

Nigeria’s failure to capitalize on the Youth Bulge coupled with the economy recession has led to a more serious crisis across the country especially in Kaduna State. Crime has become the order of the day as many youths who are unemployed, and have resorted to all manners of criminal act such as, thuggery, vandalism, kidnapping, robbery etc. In an article published by vanguard news, Chioma (2013) reported that, teenagers and young adults aged between 15-29 years are the highest abuses of marijuana, codeine, alcohol and most commonly abused drugs and substances in Nigeria, Chioma further reported that the latest polls results released by NOI Polls Limited revealed an Overall 91 percent argued that there is a high level of drugs substance abuse in Nigeria. The finding supports (UW) data that Nigeria has the highest level of abuse of Cannabis (followed by alcohol (20%) than tobacco with (9%), proscription, drugs and hard drugs (6%). Reasons adduced for the trend as identified by respondents in the poll conducted between July 1^st and 4^th, 2013 included poverty, unemployment, peer pressure, societal influence and bad friends. So it is no gain saying  to State that  the common indicators of crimes ranges from unemployment, underemployment, poverty, militancy, robbery, high rate of school dropout, substance abuse, political violence, election violence (Urdal, 2006). Hence, this study examines youth bulge and crime in Kaduna State.

 

1.2     Statement of Problem

A large cohort of youth places major strains on educational facilities, the labor market and social services which, if unmet, often lead to social instability and radicalism. It may at the same time reduce pressures in other areas such as health care because a younger population is generally healthier (Antonello, 2010). Therefore, the nature of the youth bulge and crime in Kaduna, its implications for the economic, political and social future of the states, and the impact these realities can have on citizens have become a study in contrast and a cause for concern. In countries where young adults are actively sought by employers, a large proportion of young people are assets.

The beauty of any given population is to have the population majorly characterized by large cohort of young people. People who are vibrant, filled with potentials, talents etc. with the presence of such youths in any given population, posterity and the future of the population is secured. The demographic trend of youth bulge and crime in Kaduna state has become a cause for concern among academicians, policy makers and government (Zogby, 2011). Such a growing population could engender either a positive or negative consequences. And as such it becomes imperative for researchers to carry out further studies in this regard. Kaduna as it is in other state, has potential of producing either a demographic dividend or demographic bomb. Putting it differently, it could either be a blessing or a curse if not properly stage-managed.

With the high rate of unemployed youth roaming the street, involvement in election violence, cyber and other crimes etc, it is evident that Kaduna State is on the keg of a gun powder, a situation that is a strong indication of ‘Demographic Bomb’. It is indeed a huge problem to have such a dynamic population, human resources and not take advantage of it. Today’s youth have become frustrated by the current economic crisis and this in turn has resulted in unemployment, political violence, terrorism, piracy and kidnapping, prostitution and other social vices among the young adult cohorts.

A vast number of the youths in Kaduna that ought to be in government organizations, factories, other reputable jobs and offices are found in various street corners, hotels and night clubs, prostituting they have become commercial sex workers. Prostitution in Nigeria has become widespread among different categories of people. For instance, in Nigeria the rate at which prostitution or commercial sex works spread and operate is alarming. It has reached the level that those who engage in it now demand respect from the society. (Abiodun, 2012)

Another over-emphasized but often neglected issue with the Youth Bulge in Kaduna State is unemployment. The promise by the government to deal with the issue of unemployment has become an every-day song. A song that never make meaning to all who listen, as unemployment still remains at an alarming rate. Kaduna state has recorded that the unemployment rate has increased to 9.90 percent in the third quarter of 2015 from 8.20% in the second quarter of 2015, 11.45% from 2006 until 2015 reaching an all-time high of 23.90% in the fourth quarter of 2006.

 

Peculiar to the Youth Bulge in Kaduna State is the increase in crime rate. Crime such include: piracy, armed robbery, rape, cyber fraud, kidnapping and “yahoo-yahoo” - a crime that has become a big business for the youths who engaged in the act. (www.jopd.com). Beyond this report, it is evident that those involved in this act are the youths, contributing more to the issues of demographic bomb. One question this study seeks to address is how can Kaduna State Government take advantage of this bulging youth population in productive socio-economic activities, and reduce the rates of crime to enhance a demographic dividend instead of a demographic bomb?

 

1.3     Objectives of the Study

The general objective of the study is to determine the relationship between Youth Bulge and crime. The specific objectives of the study include:

1.              To analyse the connection between Youth Bulge and crime rate in Kaduna state

2.              To ascertain whether youth bulge causes crime in Kaduna state

3.              To examine the causes of youth bulge and crime in Kaduna State

4.              To know the implication of youth bulge and crime on the economic growth of Kaduna State

 

1.4     Research Question

This study tends to answer the following research questions to solve the research problem

1.                 What is the connection between youth bulge and crime rate

2.                 Does Youth bulge causes crime in Kaduna state

3.                 What are the causes of youth bulge and crime in Kaduna State

4.                 What implications does youth bulge and crime has on the economic growth of Kaduna State

1.5     Significance of the Study

The essence of having this study goes beyond analyzing the demographic problems but also to proffer solutions to dealing with the problem associated with it. The Youth Bulge in Kaduna state is one, that must not be neglected but should be given an ultimate attention by the government, policy makers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), researchers as well as the members of the society.

Practically, this study is significant to the government as it reveal the reality of an increased youth population and the problems associated with it and thereby helping the government to see the need to salvage the situation by creating more job opportunities, empowering the youths through skill acquisition programs and education. In addition, government should seize this opportunity to recruit this young adults in military (Army, Navy, Air-force) and other government corporations.

This study also draws the attention of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). One of the main goals of NGOs is to assist the government in dealing with societal problems through its programs and operations. And as such, the Youth Bulge and its corresponding problems (crime) fall within the purview of the NGOs.

Theoretically, this study is significant as findings from the study would add to existing knowledge and would serve as a point of reference for future researchers in the field of academics.

Lastly, the study presents a systematic view of the research problem. This is significant as it enable the members of society to assess the research problem so that they can have a better understanding of the phenomenon.

 

1.6     Scope of the Study

This study is limited to examining youth bulge and crime in Kaduna State. Although there are multiplicities of issues associated with Youth Bulge, we shall in this study focus our attention on crime.

 

Although Kaduna State is made up of 23 local government areas, in this study 2 randomly selected local government areas shall be covered, these local government areas include Kaduna and North Local Government. This selected local government shall constitute the sample size distribution of the population of study.

 

1.7     Operational Definition of Concepts

1.                 Youth- Youth has being defined as categories of persons between the age where he/she may have compulsory education and the age at which he/she finds his/her first employment.For the purpose of this study we shall define youth as all persons who fall within the age bracket of 15-45

 

2.                 Youth Bulge-Gunna (1990) used the concept to describe the situation many developing countries are faced with; where there is increase in the proportion of the youth population when compared with the other age groups. For the purpose of this refers to a rise in the population of the youth in any given geographical location and at a given period of time.

 

3.                 Demographic bomb- In the light of this study, we shall define demographic bomb as the negative consequences of having an increased population of a particular category of people due to a country’s inability to manage or fund for that category of people.

 

4.                 Crime- A crime or offence is an act harmful not only to some individual but also to a community, society or the state. A crime can also be an unlawful act punishable by a state or other authority.